Beata Javorcik

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development

Beata Javorcik is Chief Economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) in London. She is on leave from the University of Oxford, where she is the first woman to hold a Statutory Professorship in Economics. She is also a Fellow of All Souls College, Oxford and the Director of the International Trade Programme at the CEPR in London. She is a member of the Scientific Advisory Committee at ifo Institute, University of Munich, as well as of the Executive and Supervisory Committee of CERGE-EI in Prague. Before taking up her position at Oxford, she worked at the World Bank in Washington DC, where she focused on research, lending operations and policy advice. She holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Yale and a B.A. in Economics (Summa cum Laude) from the University of Rochester.

Sanctions and the Shifting Landscape of International Trade

Economic sanctions have expanded rapidly in recent years, yet their effectiveness and broader consequences remain poorly understood. This presentation examines the impact of Western sanctions imposed on Russia following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. It shows that export-restricting measures have been only partially effective, as large volumes of sanctioned goods have continued to reach Russia via transshipment through third countries or by “disappearing” in transit. It highlights unintended consequences of financial sanctions, including growing fragmentation in invoicing currencies and a shift away from the U.S. dollar and toward the renminbi in Russia’s trade invoicing. Finally, it considers the perspective of exporters in third countries, who face a trade-off between the profits available in a sanctioned market and the heightened risk of reputational harm or exposure to secondary sanctions.